Plenty of charts, recent price action and prognosticating in this great article by Michael Bryant.
The odds seem to favor a higher bitcoin price.
- Low could be $3,410, but the average cost of mining and fair value based on transaction volume and vendors is about $6,000.
- Most common end of the year range is $16,000 to $28,000.
- Breakout! Or is it? Bitcoin (BTC-USD) (COIN) (OTCQX:GBTC) seems to have finally hit bottom and broken out from its six-month downtrend. I have written four bitcoin articles with the first, third, and fourth including many experimental pricing models.
Bitcoin: Tales From The Crypt And Future Pricing Models
Bitcoin: Short-Term Pullback But Long-Term Gain
Bitcoin To Reach About $142,000 Or More
Bitcoin – A Possible Triple By The End Of The Year
Most of the models seem to point to higher prices in the long run. The third article was what I predicted to be the maximum price of bitcoin based on data from December 10, 2017. But the maximum price could be anywhere between 2021 and 2027. What about the short term? After surging nearly 1300% in 2017, bitcoin peaked at $19,343 on Sunday, December 17, 2017 and bottomed 69.2% lower at $5,957 early Tuesday, February 6, 2018.
It seemed to be making a comeback, surging to $11,480 on March 4 before plunging again to $6,463 on April 1. It then bounced up to $9,827 on May 5 but failed to break its downward trend and plunged to $5,941 on June 22. After briefly moving higher, bitcoin finally broke support and fell to $5,848.28 on June 28, and now appears to be making a comeback. Was this finally the bottom, or will bitcoin fall more? What about its value based on transaction volume and vendors? Is it worthwhile to hold bitcoin? I provide updated models, an estimated maximum value, and an updated Elliot Wave graph.
Was this finally the bottom?
Read the full article on SeekingAlpha